Eurointelligence on the prorogation gambit

Some interesting comments on the effectiveness of the prorogation at Zerohedge. That article quotes a pay-walled article from a web site called Eurointelligence, a web site about politics and economics in the Eurozone.

It argues that there is no time now for any legislation to pass. And so:

There is still one option left for Remainers to pursue, but it is very risky. They could hold a vote of no confidence when they come back next week. If they win, the fixed-term parliaments act sets out a definitive procedure. The House of Commons has two weeks to secure a majority in support of another prime minister – a technical government as the Italians would call it. But this is unlikely as the opposition is hopelessly divided on this point. If that effort fails, the Commons would be suspended for new elections. But, crucially, it is the government that sets the date for them. Number Ten said yesterday that the date for elections would be November 1-5, that is after a no-deal Brexit. In other words, a no-confidence motion could actually trigger a no-deal Brexit, as the Commons would have deprived themselves of the opportunity to ratify a withdrawal agreement.

Updated: 30th August 2019 — 1:52 pm


  1. Cummings is the new Mourinho: it’s the 92nd minute and he is 1-0 up away from home. He has his team park the bus and hold the ball up at the corner flag; he’s running down the clock.
    The home supporters are furious, and the other manger is remonstrating on the touchline, but there isn’t much anyone can do except tackle the guy, take the ball off him, take it up field, beat the keeper and score a goal. All in the next 30 seconds.

    So in reality the clock is gonna run down and Mourinho/Cummings is gonna win 1-0. Again.

  2. I have no claim to be more perceptive about Brexit than others; more often than not I am in a state of complete uncertainty about what the options are and their ramifications. However, I had thought it was widely considered that this was the position.

  3. I though this was known publicly since Cummings threatened exactly this in comments to MSM weeks ago. Surely Project Fear hasn’t managed to hide this…….

  4. Given Dominic Cummings love of game theory, this is exactly what you want to do, essentially put your opposition in the position where their only options are inaction (= “No Deal BRExit”) or action (= vote of no-confidence; election and “No Deal BRExit”).

    Since MP’s look like they can’t win either way at this point (due to their own lack of unity on the issue), then their only choices are to A) Be a good sport and admit defeat graciously or B) Run around like spoilt children having a tantrum.

    Looks like they gone for option B).

  5. Sigh, it’s always option B 😁

  6. Looks like it was option C: attempt to block Brexit with a bill. Eurointelligence said it couldn’t be done. We will see…

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