The bell is about to toll

Five minutes from now. That is when YouGov’s famed MRP poll is due to be published. Half a million interviews are said to have taken place online, a dizzying number compared to what any other polling company can do. It has acquired mythic status.

Still might be wrong though.

The letters “MRP” are not a magic spell. Here is an article dated May 12th 2017 in which Lord Ashcroft writes confidently about his own soon-to-be-tested MRP model for the election of 8th June. As Anthony B. Masters wrote in this article explaining the technique,

A curious case of selective memory has surrounded the use of MRP. In the 2017 General Election, people seem to recall YouGov’s accurate central estimation of a hung parliament. Using the same technique, the Lord Ashcroft model (which estimated a Conservative majority over 60) is sometimes forgotten.


And it’s out of the gate! A dramatic gain for Labour since the previous iteration: the predictions for twenty seats have flipped from Tory to Labour. But the Oracle of YouGov is still saying there will still be a Tory majority, of 28 seats. Then again, in the manner of oracles, there is a margin of error big enough to encompass both a hung parliament and a massive Conservative majority.

I hoped this would be the fat lady singing, but all she has done is clear her throat.

Updated: 10th December 2019 — 10:33 pm


  1. Clear her throat and let loose a ripping fart…

    Let us see what the weekend brings….

  2. Polls seek a certainty that can’t be had. You guv is a remainiac run set of leftist pukes.

    Big noise about how they called it in 2017–but they didn’t call the Brexit ref. And it was only 100,000 samples by all accounts –not 520 thousand which is 800 sampled in each of 650 constituencies.

    Only Thursday will tell.


  3. Boris Johnson has to outperform his predecessor who was less honest than Harold Wilson, less in-touch than Jim Callaghan, less accommodating than Margaret Thatcher, less exciting than John Major, less sincere than Tony Blair, less likeable than Gordon Brown and less personable than David Cameron. He has the same opponent as his predessor, but an improved offering to the public with his undiscussed ‘Deal’ about shich no one seems to have said anything.

    It seems likely that he will get more seats than he had before the General Election, and have a more disciplined party. The Labour horror show will plough on though, there won’t be a massive drop in their (postal) vote.

  4. Mr Ecks, the “half a million interviews” I mentioned were not all of different people. YouGov returned to the same interviewees and asked them if their intentions had changed several times during the course of the campaign.

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