Five minutes from now. That is when YouGov’s famed MRP poll is due to be published. Half a million interviews are said to have taken place online, a dizzying number compared to what any other polling company can do. It has acquired mythic status.
Still might be wrong though.
The letters “MRP” are not a magic spell. Here is an article dated May 12th 2017 in which Lord Ashcroft writes confidently about his own soon-to-be-tested MRP model for the election of 8th June. As Anthony B. Masters wrote in this article explaining the technique,
A curious case of selective memory has surrounded the use of MRP. In the 2017 General Election, people seem to recall YouGov’s accurate central estimation of a hung parliament. Using the same technique, the Lord Ashcroft model (which estimated a Conservative majority over 60) is sometimes forgotten.
And it’s out of the gate! A dramatic gain for Labour since the previous iteration: the predictions for twenty seats have flipped from Tory to Labour. But the Oracle of YouGov is still saying there will still be a Tory majority, of 28 seats. Then again, in the manner of oracles, there is a margin of error big enough to encompass both a hung parliament and a massive Conservative majority.
I hoped this would be the fat lady singing, but all she has done is clear her throat.