Tim Shipman, Political Editor of the Sunday Times, tweets:
Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election) 10:00 PM · Nov 23, 2019
These four polls showed Tory leads over Labour of 10, 13, 13 and 19 per cent respectively. The average of the four gives a slight increase in the Conservative lead. Meanwhile Lib Dem hopes were getting bounced up and down: Deltapoll showed them up 5, but the other three were down a little or steady.
But the big news was the MRP – Multilevel regression with poststratification – poll. In the previous election YouGov’s MRP poll was one of only two (alongside a conventional poll by Survation) that did well. This one is slightly different, in that YouGov’s data has been used, but the MRP model is not their own but that of an outfit called Datapraxis.
Polls do not foretell the future. Things could still change. They did in 2017. But this is a blow to Labour’s hopes.
This same poll might not be so great for the personal hopes of some Conservative MPs. A subsequent tweet from Tim Shipman adds,
The Datapraxis MRP modelling predicts that 7 big beast Brexiteers are in danger of losing their seats.
Read the whole tweet to find out which MPs they are. Number 6 will worry you.