Michel Barnier optimistic of deal after PM makes concessions on Irish border
This may be a minority opinion round here, but I hope that a deal is agreed today. If it is it will probably be a bad deal in many respects. Nonetheless I would prefer not to let the best be the enemy of the good, or more to the point, the possible. Once we are out, new things can happen. I feel the need of some new things.
If, after that, Remainers manoeuvre to block such a deal (after wailing for months about how terrible the absence of one would be, as I was discussing yesterday) – that’s on them. Let them defend their choice to start playing Brexit II: Just when you thought it was safe to look at the news again.
This will be Brexit-in-name-only. The give-away is ‘level playing field’ meaning we will be subject to EU rules & regulations.
I will be confident with no-deal and cautious of any deal. We will probably get a better deal after we’ve left than at any time while the EU doubts we will leave. Canada++ and no payment and unilateral revocability on a none-too-long timescale would be OK by me. £39 billion for a ‘level-playing field’ till the EU gave us permission to change would not be. As to who is making what concessions, if any, I will not assume that I am better informed after reading the Grauniad than before, still less after being told something Barnier said. No-one wants to look like the one who prevented a deal, though the EU’s cloth-ear / foot-in-mouth talents meant they came close enough last Thursday.
Niall K: “We will probably get a better deal after we’ve left than at any time while the EU doubts we will leave.”
If the boys in Brussels are really as evil as some would say, then is that likely?
From the Evil Brussels perspective, the best option would be to keep the UK in the EU — simply to avoid giving ideas to other unhappy EU members. The second best option would be for the UK to leave the EU, and subsequently experience great difficulties — again, to help Brussels keep the others in line.
That suggests the EU might take great joy in being very slow and very difficult in negotiating any kind of deal with the UK following a No Deal separation.
If only one could have more confidence in the skills of the Westminster Political Class and their bureaucrats!
It’s always very worrying when politicians go into a huddle. The longer the huddle the more they feel they have to agree something. Anything.
My bottom line – I guess, FWIW – is that we must leave the Customs Union and have the flexibility to withdraw from anything else whenever we see fit.
Not especially. “We will probably get a better deal after we’ve left” does not contradict “EUrocrats will keep trying to mess it up for us after we’ve left”. However their options may be narrowed. While we’re in, the nations of Europe see no special cost in hardball negotiations. Since trade is done for mutually benefit, it follows that, once we’re out, anything that looks like it is hurting us may also look like it is hurting them.
“From the Evil Brussels perspective, the best option would be to keep the UK in the EU — simply to avoid giving ideas to other unhappy EU members. The second best option would be for the UK to leave the EU, and subsequently experience great difficulties — again, to help Brussels keep the others in line.”
Isn’t this totally obvious? Anyone can see that they are not going to negotiate in good faith for precisely this reason. If the UK leaves and thrives then the game is up for them, so they will do everything in their power to stop that from happening.