A Telegraph opinion piece by Dr Stephen Davies of the Institute of Economic Affairs appears in the Telegraph titled: “An early General Election will confirm the total realignment of British politics”.
If and when this happens, this will be a realigning election. The Conservative Party would seek a mandate to leave the EU even if this meant leaving without a deal. Faced with this, a significant number of Conservative MPs will either leave politics or run on a separate ticket, probably with a deal with the Liberal Democrats and Greens. This alliance will be founded on an explicitly remain platform, placing the Labour Party under enormous pressure to adopt the same position – though it is not clear what Jeremy Corbyn will do.
The Conservative Party will then become the representative of one side of the new divide; both the party of leave and a kind of British nationalism that rejects the EU’s supranational politics. (Electoral incentives mean this will not be as straightforwardly free market as many suppose).
Meanwhile a new kind of centre left will be emerging on the opposite side. There will be a clearly Remain-oriented bloc of Lib Dems, Greens, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and dissident Conservatives, that supports the supranational politics of the EU and a different vision of Britain’s identity and place in the world. If the Labour Party is not very careful and lucky it will be caught between these two new poles and the election will truly realign British politics. This will shape our history for decades.
You can see why the opposition does not want an election. They don’t know what to do with one.
You can’t blame the puppet, when it misspeaks. Blame the master.
Poor Richard Burgon has clearly not been given a briefing on what to think by Jeremy Corbyn (John McDonald) eta al….
They know a big shock is coming post leaving the EU. The Establish hates disruption cause its a chance to lose more power.
A GE at this point or a No Deal are both equally undesirable to the powers behind our Political folk.
Seems like the wild card here is the UK’s First Past The Post voting system.
FPTP works ok, as long as there are only 2 serious candidates. In the next General Election, it sounds like there will many serious candidates in a substantial number of constituencies — Boris’s Conservative Party; the dissident “True Tories” (who will probably form their own party and run against Boris); The Brexit Party (who may doubt Boris’s sincerity); Labour Party; Lib-Dems; SNP; DUP; Welsh Nationalists.
After a General Election, it is almost a certainty that whatever group ends up in power (tough to predict!) will represent only a minority of UK citizens — which means continuing controversies. Difficult situation! But if it ends up destroying both the Conservative & Labour Parties and initiating real change in the governance of the UK, then it would be a price worth paying.
Sounds a bit like a rerun of the February 1974 General Election when it was Ted Heath versus the unions about the principles of “Who Governs?” (to which the answer was “Not you mate!”)
It seems that this time it is Boris doing the “Who Governs?” bit against the knaves of Parliament and their procedural treachery. Hopefully this time the answer will be “Not EU mate!”.
I personally suspect that lots of people will hold their distaste for politics and politicians on all sides (Boris included) and Vote Tory to get BRExit over and done with, not because they have any love of Boris or BRExit, but rather because they are sick and tired of parliamentary shenanigans and want it over as soon as possible, which is what Boris is offering.
I doubt this will be the death knell of either Labour or the Tories (indeed I suspect it will be peak Tory), but that is because the choice is stark. Labour will pay the price for Corbyn as leader though, regardless of BRExit.
Why would anyone vote for the Conservatives for a promise to leave the EU? They promised it at the last election and it still hasn’t happened. A considerable number of them are doing everything in their power to stop it happening. Oh but if you vote us in this time we will definitely leave, we promise, we really really promise this time honest.
Because the last time around both the main parties were promising to deliver BRExit and the failure and treachery hadn’t actually happened yet (although their were clear signs of it)
This time around it is a clear binary choice as far as the main parties go. Vote Labour and you will definitely NOT get BRExit. Vote Tory and you just might. Not because the Tory MP’s believe in it, but because it has become an existential threat to them and they know that if they repudiate it or fudge it in any significant way then they are done.
Ladbrokes odds of “UK to leave EU with no Brexit Deal before Nov 1st” are currently running at 2/1, which is pretty good odds I think and reasonably reflects the chances.