What just happened? Some probabilities have shifted but nothing is yet decided. A vote has been won to enable remainer MPs to introduce their European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill 2019 which, among other things, may force the Prime Minister to ask the European Council for an extension of a length determined by the European Council.
Boris Johnson has initiated a procedure to enable a debate and a vote on whether or not to have a general election. He has threatened, should an election take place, to deselect Tory MPs who opposed him in the previous vote.
Much remains to be seen.
- Will the remainers’ bill pass the first vote?
- Will it be delayed by arcane procedures?
- Should it pass, will it be put in front of the Queen for royal assent? Boris has said only that he will obey the law and the constitution. The constitution seems to allow him to prevent it becoming law.
- A general election may delay it.
- A general election may or may not be possible. Jeremy Corbyn says he does not want an election (until no-deal-Brexit is removed as a possibility).
- Nobody is quite sure whether the election would be before or after the 31st October.
- Should a general election take place, Boris might deselect Tory MPs who have opposed him thus far. Update: Confirmed that Boris has withdrawn the whip (they are expelled from the party and are now independent) from 21 MPs who voted against him.
- Unless leavers are completely satisfied, the outcome of any election is very uncertain, and includes the possibility of a Corbyn government.
If Johnson accepts Farages deal he will win any GE quite handily I think. TBP wants only No Deal–no seats or Ministeries etc–just No Deal. Can’t get a better offer.
if Johnson tries to revive Treason May’s turd then he is just Treason Mark 2 and it was all a Tory scam. If he really means it he can win.
As for the House of Traitors. Bojo just stops their crap bill from getting Royal Assent and we sit thro’ a lovely countdown to Brexit No Deal 31/10/19. Or Jizza can accept the GE he doesn’t want. And campaign on a platform of handing the UK over to EU control. Not too smart.
I get the feeling Cummings and crew have a counter move for everything the Remainers do and time is not on their side…..
If the Remainers succeed and fend off leaving with a revocation or any kind of name only leaving, what is to stop the next GE being a BREXIT Party landslide?
Nothing as far as I can see.
So at this point Remainers are just scrabbling for time without knowing what else to do.
Anything in their bill besides a general request to seek and extension interferes with the Royal Prerogative and requires Royal assent and good old Tony Blair showed how easy that is to get.
Remainers appear headless and strategy less which was good enough against Theresa the Appeaser but worthless against determined opposition.
Regardless of the mockery that recent events have made of the HoC, they have succeeded in flushing out (and away) the Tory traitors of Remain, shown that Jeremy Corbyn will sell his soul (and the British electorate) to get his hands on Number 10, but not through an election (What?) and place Labour on the opposite side of the street to between 20 and 40% of it’s own base.
It’s pretty astounding considering where we were only a few months ago with Labour being absolutely certain about how unsure it was about BRExit and the Tories full of dither and doubt (T. Treason May)
Now Boris has made it pretty clear that (outside Labour heartlands) the Tories are in the ascendant with BRExit “Do or Die” on 31st October. If they can manage to privately convince Nigel Farage that the whole BRExit negotiations is just a sham and he’s just winding down the clock to a “No Deal” there may well be a balance that will boost the Tories chances and hurt Labour (by BRExit campaigning in Labour heartlands and other places where the Tories can’t win).
The biggest factor here is that Nigel Farage has to trust Boris to do what he says and there ain’t a whole lot of trust going around right now.
As for the Brussels Surrender bill, if that doesn’t get stopped by filibustering or other tactics in the HoL, then it will be stopped during Royal Prerogative / Royal Assent.
Even if he can’t do that for whatever reason, provided Boris is returned with a decent majority of non-traitors (a big if), they can simply repeal the bill before going to Brussels. But I doubt that they would let it go that far.
I don’t think Dominic Cummings is masterminding all of this, since much of it involves arcane aspects of HoC / HoL / RA procedures, but his sticky fingers are all over it.