{"id":819,"date":"2019-12-10T21:55:36","date_gmt":"2019-12-10T21:55:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/?p=819"},"modified":"2019-12-10T22:33:54","modified_gmt":"2019-12-10T22:33:54","slug":"the-bell-is-about-to-toll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/2019\/12\/10\/the-bell-is-about-to-toll\/","title":{"rendered":"The bell is about to toll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Five minutes from now. That is when YouGov’s famed MRP poll is due to be published. Half a million interviews are said to have taken place online, a dizzying number compared to what any other polling company can do. It has acquired mythic status. <\/p>\n

Still might be wrong though. <\/p>\n

The letters “MRP” are not a magic spell. Here<\/a> is an article dated May 12th 2017 in which Lord Ashcroft writes confidently about his own soon-to-be-tested MRP model for the election of 8th June. As Anthony B. Masters wrote in this article explaining the technique<\/a>,<\/p>\n

A curious case of selective memory has surrounded the use of MRP. In the 2017 General Election, people seem to recall YouGov\u2019s accurate central estimation of a hung parliament. Using the same technique, the Lord Ashcroft model (which estimated a Conservative majority over 60) is sometimes forgotten.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

*<\/p>\n

And it’s out of the gate<\/a>! A dramatic gain for Labour since the previous iteration: the predictions for twenty seats have flipped from Tory to Labour. But the Oracle of YouGov is still saying there will still be<\/em> a Tory majority, of 28 seats. Then again, in the manner of oracles, there is a margin of error big enough to encompass both a hung parliament and a massive Conservative majority. <\/p>\n

I hoped this would be the fat lady singing, but all she has done is clear her throat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Five minutes from now. That is when YouGov’s famed MRP poll is due to be published. Half a million interviews are said to have taken place online, a dizzying number compared to what any other polling company can do. It has acquired mythic status. Still might be wrong though. The letters “MRP” are not a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=819"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":829,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819\/revisions\/829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}