{"id":766,"date":"2019-11-23T23:30:52","date_gmt":"2019-11-23T23:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/?p=766"},"modified":"2019-11-23T23:41:23","modified_gmt":"2019-11-23T23:41:23","slug":"polly-put-the-kettle-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/2019\/11\/23\/polly-put-the-kettle-on\/","title":{"rendered":"Polly put the kettle on"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tim Shipman, Political Editor of the Sunday Times, tweets: <\/p>\n

BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48<\/a> <\/p>\n

Con 349 <\/p>\n

Lab 213 <\/p>\n

LD 14 <\/p>\n

SNP 49 <\/p>\n

Plaid 5 <\/p>\n

Green 1 <\/p>\n

Speaker 1 <\/p>\n

Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election) 10:00 PM \u00b7 Nov 23, 2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There have been no less than four other voting intention polls published tonight, from Savanta ComRes<\/a>, Deltapoll<\/a>, BMG<\/a> and Opinium<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These four polls showed Tory leads over Labour of 10, 13, 13 and 19 per cent respectively. The average of the four gives a slight increase in the Conservative lead. Meanwhile Lib Dem hopes were getting bounced up and down: Deltapoll showed them up 5, but the other three were down a little or steady. <\/p>\n

But the big news was the MRP – Multilevel regression with poststratification<\/a> – poll. In the previous election YouGov’s MRP poll was one of only two (alongside a conventional poll by Survation) that did well. This one is slightly different, in that YouGov’s data has been used, but the MRP model is not their own but that of an outfit called Datapraxis. <\/p>\n

Polls do not foretell the future. Things could still change. They did in 2017. But this is a blow to Labour’s hopes.<\/p>\n

This same poll might not be so great for the personal<\/em> hopes of some Conservative MPs. A subsequent tweet from Tim Shipman adds<\/a>,<\/p>\n

The Datapraxis MRP modelling predicts that 7 big beast Brexiteers are in danger of losing their seats.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Read the whole tweet to find out which MPs they are. Number 6 will worry you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tim Shipman, Political Editor of the Sunday Times, tweets: BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48 Con 349 Lab 213 LD 14 SNP 49 Plaid 5 Green 1 Speaker 1 Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election) 10:00 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=766"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":774,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766\/revisions\/774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatrealignment.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}